2023 Outlook: Sombre optimism amidst depressed sentiment

2023 Outlook: Sombre optimism amidst depressed sentiment

January 10, 2023

With bitcoin and Ethereum down 65% and 68% respectively over the past year, reflecting on 2022 was testing. Looking back to my 2022 predictions they highlight the challenges of the past year and provide several great lessons. Crypto is as susceptible to the vagaries of the global liquidity cycle as ever, pushing bitcoin into the 4th prolonged bear market in its 14-year history. Bitcoin internals suggest that the bear market is over, correlations vs. trad-fi have broken and sentiment is incredibly depressed, which supports a counter-trend upside surprise in price. But the depth of the liquidity winter remains a question mark, which must keep risk appetite somewhat constrained in 2023, or until the liquidity cycle turns.TDLR: A challenging 2022 is expected to give way to a choppy but upside biased 2023 with bitcoin and ethereum surprising to the upside.Full article HERE.

  • Value-add & Lessons in the face of challenging conditions

  • Bullish bias must be counteracted through process and framework

  • Crypto leverage accounted for through BTC & ETH dominance

  • Greater focus on macro indicator

  • Patience is a virtue as the cyclical winds turn

  • Base case: bitcoin bottomed on 21 November 2022 at $15.5K

  • Macro indicator has turned – looking for confirmation in money supply data

  • Oil prices should pressure inflation lower in 2023

  • 2023 could still be challenging but bitcoin and ether prices are biased to the upside

  • Further crypto consolidation expected, rising bitcoin & Ethereum dominance

  • Watching tokenization of real-world assets and stablecoins in 2023

On the personal front, 2022 was pretty momentous and I expect 2023 will be no different. My wife and I are expecting our first child in January 2023. I am looking forward to what 2023 brings in life, work and everything in between.

Wishing you a wonderful start to the new year.

Rob Price