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RELIEF OFF THE LOWS, MONITORING EXUBERANCE

Good news, the Price family is celebrating a new arrival, the blossoms are out in Santa Monica, and bitcoin has experienced its strongest month since February 2021. The 2023 outlook is clearly more optimistic than 2022, but this is not a signal that the challenges are entirely behind us. We need corroborating evidence to dollar weakness to confirm a new macro cycle in 2023. Exuberance would be a sign that we have got ahead of ourselves. Strong gains and sharp reversals are expected in the first year after the bitcoin price bottoms.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Bitcoin rallied 39.1% in January 2023, its biggest monthly rally since February 2021

• We expect November 2022 marked the cycle lows for bitcoin and ether

• Sharp gains and reversals are common in the first year after price bottoms

• USD weakness has been a key factor driving improvement in macro conditions

• Corroborating evidence of macro upswing required from money supply

• Dollar strength will likely present challenges again 2023

• Perpetual funding rates suggest exuberance is already emerging

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